ONE of the most difficult exercises of calculation in the housing market housing is available for sale, the stock of housing. The Ministry of Development provides information on completed houses (work certificates) rather late, in fact official figures available are for 2009, and there are estimated based on assumptions unsold homes on demand, drawn from the notarial records on purchases. We talked, in any case, unsold new homes.
In 2009 there were 114,147 homes in Andalusia who found no buyer, and estimates there are 1,000 more in late 2010. In other words, demand is less than the supply of unsold homes and had to be accumulated. And this in a context of extreme weakness of the promotion, which starts a minimum number of dwellings, as we noted in previous observatories.
The data must be interpreted in the aggregate, as in specific areas may be the same demand and the housing stock and bringing the stock to zero. Those 115,000 empty homes, also roughly 20% are distributed, each in Malaga and Almeria, 16% in Cadiz and Seville, 10% in Granada and 6% in Cordoba, Huelva and Jaen. Comparing Andalucia Spain, in the national total is 777,000 homes for sale, which Andalusia is 15% of total. But numbers are not exempt from discussion, as this amount does not include self-built housing or those made under a cooperative. Another issue is the houses in the hands of financial institutions. According to latest figures provided at the request of the Bank of Spain, financial institutions have about 16,000 million euros (considering only the most significant entities on which data are available) awarded finished buildings, which average 160,000 euros per household would give about 100,000 homes. This is important because financial institutions favor the financing of their homes and have their own pricing policy, influencing the evolution of the sector.
Taking the official figures from the Ministry of 2009 and the most reliable of 2010, we estimate what the excess housing for this year and the next two, taking into account the number of houses completed each year and demand in the market. The table includes data from 2008 to 2010, and an estimate as promoter activity. For a weak activity, which incorporated virtually no new housing in 2013 could be even a housing shortage in Andalusia, but, of course, there are always promotional initiatives, thereby assuming that start between 10,000 and 20,000 homes , the stock would decline, to 80,000, 42,000 and 8,000 households for 2011, 2012 and 2013, respectively.
The readings can be made from these data are different. First, and considering Andalucía as a whole, the slowness with which it reduces the stock of housing means that the promoter activity remain weak, and the contribution of the construction sector to the economy, with all that implies for dependent sectors of the same and employment. Consider that virtually no activity would take almost three years to exhaust the stock of homes currently available. Second, the time between initiating a project and end housing is a gap that may negatively affect the economy. A third aspect to the lack of adoption of numerous urban master plans, which in practice prevents initiate projects that could be feasible, also municipal taxes on the building are very high and are significant and difficult to pass now that promotion margins have been drastically reduced. Fourth, we must always bear in mind that housing markets are very specific, with the surplus in some areas may begin to appear deficits in others. Based on these ideas and information available, it is clear that the need for greater political involvement in the housing market. It is incomprehensible that after four years of falling almost no initiatives in this respect as seeking some foreign markets, which undoubtedly would reduce the stock and encourage the market, are too timid and limited scope.
In 2009 there were 114,147 homes in Andalusia who found no buyer, and estimates there are 1,000 more in late 2010. In other words, demand is less than the supply of unsold homes and had to be accumulated. And this in a context of extreme weakness of the promotion, which starts a minimum number of dwellings, as we noted in previous observatories.
The data must be interpreted in the aggregate, as in specific areas may be the same demand and the housing stock and bringing the stock to zero. Those 115,000 empty homes, also roughly 20% are distributed, each in Malaga and Almeria, 16% in Cadiz and Seville, 10% in Granada and 6% in Cordoba, Huelva and Jaen. Comparing Andalucia Spain, in the national total is 777,000 homes for sale, which Andalusia is 15% of total. But numbers are not exempt from discussion, as this amount does not include self-built housing or those made under a cooperative. Another issue is the houses in the hands of financial institutions. According to latest figures provided at the request of the Bank of Spain, financial institutions have about 16,000 million euros (considering only the most significant entities on which data are available) awarded finished buildings, which average 160,000 euros per household would give about 100,000 homes. This is important because financial institutions favor the financing of their homes and have their own pricing policy, influencing the evolution of the sector.
Taking the official figures from the Ministry of 2009 and the most reliable of 2010, we estimate what the excess housing for this year and the next two, taking into account the number of houses completed each year and demand in the market. The table includes data from 2008 to 2010, and an estimate as promoter activity. For a weak activity, which incorporated virtually no new housing in 2013 could be even a housing shortage in Andalusia, but, of course, there are always promotional initiatives, thereby assuming that start between 10,000 and 20,000 homes , the stock would decline, to 80,000, 42,000 and 8,000 households for 2011, 2012 and 2013, respectively.
The readings can be made from these data are different. First, and considering Andalucía as a whole, the slowness with which it reduces the stock of housing means that the promoter activity remain weak, and the contribution of the construction sector to the economy, with all that implies for dependent sectors of the same and employment. Consider that virtually no activity would take almost three years to exhaust the stock of homes currently available. Second, the time between initiating a project and end housing is a gap that may negatively affect the economy. A third aspect to the lack of adoption of numerous urban master plans, which in practice prevents initiate projects that could be feasible, also municipal taxes on the building are very high and are significant and difficult to pass now that promotion margins have been drastically reduced. Fourth, we must always bear in mind that housing markets are very specific, with the surplus in some areas may begin to appear deficits in others. Based on these ideas and information available, it is clear that the need for greater political involvement in the housing market. It is incomprehensible that after four years of falling almost no initiatives in this respect as seeking some foreign markets, which undoubtedly would reduce the stock and encourage the market, are too timid and limited scope.
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